4th November 2011

Artemis: The Hunters Tails

Graecum est. Non legitur. It’s Greek to me,” as the medieval scribes, right Latinists to a man, used to say. That’s “Det er helt gresk for meg,” as, in a desperate form of compromise, they’re saying in Norwegian at Cannes.

 

Referendum on. Referendum off. “I will be glad even if we don’t go to a referendum, which was never a purpose in itself,” Papandreou has just explained [sic]. Assuming that he loses the vote of confidence at 16:00 today in the cradle of democracy that might yet become a crematorium, Papandreou’s exit could allow some calm to enter: next tranche of bail-out paid. Lights stay on. Greek bond yields stabilise — or even fall. It may just be that the necessary catharsis is a continuing one, rather than a dangerous default, as the ECB goes for interest rates (-0.25% to 1.25%) rather than QE — at least for now.

 

Anyway, in all of this Italy and its €2 trillion of debt is the far greater issue. With their yield down to 6.2% (from the recent and alarming 6.4%) the spread of Italian 10-year bond yields over German bunds is down, at least. This is in the St Nicolas of time. “Better,” says James Foster of Strategic Bond — “but far from relaxing. If this spread is to narrow properly, there’s only one way — fiscal union. Let alone anybody else, do the Germans and Italians want that?” In the meantime, Berlusconi, or his successor, has to deliver. Act. Cut. Do. Such imperatives, even optimists must aver, are not inherently Italian.

 

And even if some of the horsemen of apocalypse are fading for now, a fourth is the US crisis of debt, public and private. The former may come riding back into town on 23 November — if the bipartisan congressional ‘super’ committee (tasked with reducing the federal deficit by $1.2 trillion over the next 10 years) fails so to do. As for the latter, more and more ‘homeowners’ are losing the plot. We note that Freddie Mac has just had to ask Uncle Sam for another $6 billion to cover its losses in Q3 alone.

 

In short, the only certainty we see ahead is uncertainty. Even if Greece does or must leave the euro, there is no legal mechanism for such a thing unless, under article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, it leaves the EU too. On the other hand, some of us will remember February 1993, when the Czechoslovak koruna was split into the Czech koruna and the Slovak koruna. It worked. Meanwhile, Argentina’s default in 2005 is already in the labile mists of memory.

 

On balance, though, another Greek word of moment is anarchy. Hubris. Nemesis. Wondering whether or not to cross the river Halys and invade Persia, King Croesus consulted the Delphic oracle. “If you cross the Halys,” came the reply, “you will destroy a mighty empire.” So Croesus did cross the Halys and did destroy a mighty empire. Unfortunately, it was his own. Greece’s legacy goes on.

 

As do equities ...

For example, our Global Select team have just seen Praxair, which “produces, sells, and distributes atmospheric gases including oxygen, nitrogen, argon, and rare gases, as well as process gases including carbon dioxide, helium, hydrogen and acetylene.” That is, a bellwether stock. Says Alex Illingworth: “Sadly, the valuation still keeps us away from this company. But always a pleasure to see. Firstly, they work to the mantra: focus on cashflow, and the earnings will take care of themselves. Secondly, they are as good a read on global economy as you are likely to get. Their view is consistent with what we are hearing from other companies: the world may be slowing slightly; but it is not falling apart.”

 

In like manner, the Adrians of [y]our Income Fund find the fund’s yield of 4.6% “more than 2.5x covered by earnings.” Alert to defensives becoming overvalued, with some of the money you are kindly giving them they have added to BP, Smith & Nephew and Smiths Industries. As you may have seen in the press, they voted on your behalves this week against G4S’ takeover of ISS — and now hope that the company will “get on with its knitting.” For Global Income, Jacob is sticking with ‘decent if dull’: telecoms, utilities, health care, broadcasters and cable companies. “These,” says Jacob, “are the sectors where dividends are the most reliable and where managements deliver a strong and growing dividend.” That will do.

 

For UK Special Situations, Derek and Ruth think that “growth will be harder to come by and self-help will be much needed. One of our longest standing positions — Booker — has both. The company, through strong management, continues to outperform and has just produced another strong set of figures.” Derek and Ruth also note positive trading updates at May Gurney (“essential services”), one of their few 100% UK focused businesses, and Xaar (printheads), where recent capex is bearing rich (and polychromatic?) fruit.

 

Corporate Darwinism, then, is hale and well. Through these volatile and unsettling times, when macro-matters are almost anyone’s guess, we reckon that many companies will not just survive, but thrive. The question remains: which ones?

 

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