20th February 2025
T.Rowe Price: Global Asset Allocation: The View From the UK
Outlook: New World Order
- We have a more cautious view as broadly resilient global growth and receding inflation trends could be at risk to increased policy uncertainty, particularly around trade threats.
- US growth exceptionalism leaves it better positioned should trade disputes escalate, with other major economies, particularly Europe and China, more exposed with growth already tepid.
- Central bank divergence could widen on impacts of trade, with the Fed in a position to wait on impacts, whilst other central banks, including the Bank of England (BoE), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada, advance easing as risk tilts towards slower growth.
- Key risks to global markets include elevated threat of trade wars impacting growth and reaccelerating inflation, central bank missteps and geopolitical tensions.
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