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21st May 2024

T. Rowe Price: Let’s get real (about interest rates)

As I was driving home recently, I called Charles Shriver. We were talking about this Special Topic when he said something quite clever. It perfectly captured how to think about interest rates in the future.   

Before I tell you what he said, let me provide some background: 

Charles is a portfolio manager and cochair of the Asset Allocation Committee (AAC). We work together on all of our AAC Special Topics. He’s a fantastic investor, collaborator, and sounding board. 

Prior to our conversation, Charles and I had asked Cesare Buiatti, senior quantitative investment analyst, to backfill the history of real interest rates—in other words, interest rates with inflation stripped out—in the United States by historical regime. 

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