Industry news and views from Panacea and our partners.
T. Rowe Price
T. Rowe Price: China Market Outlook
Chinese equities have been disappointing since early 2021, with the MSCI China Index more than halving. It has continued to underperform even as the country emerged from the pandemic late last year. Most other economies enjoyed a consumption boom following the post?COVID reopening. However, this failed to materialize in China.
T. Rowe Price: Japan Market Outlook
Just a year ago, few would have confidently predicted that Japan would see the kind of renaissance it is currently experiencing.
T. Rowe Price: Broadening Equity Horizons
Global equity markets are likely to remain challenged in 2024 as the world transitions to a regime of higher trend inflation and interest rates. This environment will demand a greater attention to risk management, as the transition could create shifts in expectations for earnings growth, triggering volatility.
T. Rowe Price: Rethinking Fixed Income
The massive tightening of financial conditions since late 2021 has produced a fixed income market vastly different from the stimulus-fueled environment during and following the pandemic. The cross currents generated by these changes will challenge investors again in 2024.
T. Rowe Price: Navigating Macroeconomic Fog
The COVID pandemic and the subsequent recovery continue to distort the economic data, forcing economists who rely on traditional recession signals to continually revise their assumptions. As a result, the most anticipated global recession in history has become the most delayed recession in history.
T. Rowe Price: The Inflation Battle May Not Be Over
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) has trended steadily lower since peaking at 8.93% in June 2022. Despite higher readings in July and August 2023, core CPI—which excludes the volatile food and energy categories—has continued to decline. This has led to some speculation that the Federal Reserve could soon switch from raising interest rates to cutting them.
T. Rowe Price: Our response to a changing world
David Eiswert explains how he’s still focused on finding companies with improving returns
T. Rowe Price: 3 lessons for an uncertain environment
David Eiswert outlines his rule of 3 for the current environment and how he’s excited about new opportunities emerging
T. Rowe Price: Moving to a new equilibrium path
David Eiswert explains how the world is now on a different path where inflation creates inflation
T. Rowe Price: Decoding the Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ narrative
David shares his thoughts on the Fed’s efforts to curb inflation and bring interest rates down within the context of an election year.
T. Rowe Price: Government Bond Issuance Boom to Pressure Yields Higher
Our last blog discussed my belief that a soft landing is a fairy tale. However, many of our portfolios have been positioned short duration. That may not seem logical at first glance.
T. Rowe Price: Why You Should Consider a Better Future for EM Equities
A strong dollar, disappointing earnings growth, and slowing global growth make the outlook for emerging market equities challenging in the short term.
T. Rowe Price: The Fairy Tale of a Soft Landing
Early in 2023, the consensus view was that a global recession was coming later in 2023. But as the year has matured, the consensus outlook has completely shifted. A soft landing—or even no landing—is now the consensus. What is remarkable is how strong the consensus has become. The consensus is, indeed, so consensus!
T. Rowe Price: Regulating the AI Revolution: What Investors Need to Know
The disruptive potential of generative artificial intelligence, or AI that can create new content, has captivated the public, markets, and corporate executives. It also figures prominently among the technology issues on the minds of Washington policymakers.
T. Rowe Price: The Rising Cost of Capital: Bond Implication
After languishing near zero for over a decade, US interest rates have risen at the fastest pace in modern history. It’s a tightening policy that’s been mirrored by central banks around the world.
T. Rowe Price: The Outlook for US Smaller Companies Looks Increasingly Compelling
While the US equity market has become increasingly concentrated at the top end over the past decade, smaller?company valuations are at their most compelling levels in decades.
T. Rowe Price: Analyst Insights From Mexico
Members of our emerging market team recently visited Mexico, one of the best performers in the EM universe in the first half of 2023.
T. Rowe Price: Offense and Defense—Health Care Offers Exposure to Both Worlds
Amid a more uncertain market environment, we believe health care is one of the few sectors that offer defensive attributes as well as attractive growth opportunities.
T. Rowe Price: Only a labour market downturn will solve the UK’s inflation problem
Inflation has surged across the world over the past few years, fuelled by a chip shortage, an energy price shock and strong post-pandemic demand. Yet inflation in the UK is proving to be more persistent than inflation in other advanced economies, where core CPI inflation is now falling. To bring UK inflation back in line with other developed nations, the Bank of England will need to hike further and unemployment will need to rise – and this will have clear implications for gilts and UK stocks.
T. Rowe Price: Central Banks Step Into Potential Policy Error Territory
Could we be entering the zone of a global monetary policy mistake? Recent hawkish stances taken by some major developed market central banks make this a valid question. There is now a meaningful risk that these central banks could overtighten in their quest to quell inflation and help push the global economy into recession as well as induce a financial market recession. China’s central bank, on the other hand, may be making a different type of policy error by not easing policy enough to support the country’s economy.
T. Rowe Price: High Yield Bonds Appear Well Positioned for a Downturn
High yield issuers should be better placed to withstand this downturn as a key driver is the aggressive tightening from central banks, not credit bubbles.
T. Rowe Price: Finding the signal through the noise
Moving into the second half of 2023, the balance of economic forces still appears tilted against global capital markets. Sticky inflation, central bank tightening, and financial instability all pose clear risks.
T. Rowe Price: Global Equities: everything changes, so focus on what stays the same
here have been three key surprises in 2023. First, a warm winter spared Europe with energy prices going from an icy headwind to a pleasant tailwind. Second, the Chinese economy proved less robust than investors expected as it emerged from its zero?COVID policies. And finally, the artificial intelligence (AI) wave exploded into markets, with semiconductor company earnings driven higher by panicked spending from internet giants keen to be at the forefront of the AI revolution. We were positioned well for the third surprise.
T. Rowe Price: Foundations of Emerging Markets Bond Investing
The multi?trillion?dollar emerging market (EM) bond market covers a multitude of countries with distinct and changing geopolitical and economic profiles. To traverse this vast and diverse market as an investor, we believe that the starting point should be assessing a country’s debt sustainability profile. That’s because while debt is a necessary component for financing economic development, when it becomes unsustainable, it can be an accelerator for distress and a macroeconomic crisis. This underscores why it is so important to undertake a country?specific debt sustainability analysis—it’s the foundation from which we build upon when investing in emerging market debt (EMD).
T. Rowe Price: What Does the Stress in Regional Banking Mean for U.S. Smaller Companies?
The impact of recent failures in the U.S. banking sector, and the rapid withdrawal of deposits across some regional U.S. banks, has been profound.
T. Rowe Price: Fostering Change With Impact Investing
Impact investing has gained traction in recent years to address the needs of investors seeking a more values?based investment approach. We brought together our three impact portfolio managers to discuss the rise of impact investing and how they see the sector evolving.
T. Rowe Price: US Equities: Outlook amidst the volatility
In this interview recorded with Asset TV, Eric Veiel, Head of Global Equity & CIO at T. Rowe Price, opens up on lessons learnt from the challenging markets of recent years. He also discusses the mid- to long-term outlook for US equities, how prospects compare to other parts of the world and highlights sectors where our analysts are finding some interesting opportunities.
T. Rowe Price: China's Reopening: Implications and Impact
China’s sharp reversal of zero-COVID should have the biggest impact on domestic demand. Stimulus policies will be an important element in economic recovery this year.
T. Rowe Price: 2023 Five Investment Trends for the Next 12 Months
Investment outcomes in 2023 are anticipated to be better for most investors than in 2022. After more than a decade of relatively benign markets, benefitting from low inflation, supportive central banks and moderate economic growth, conditions changed in 2022. With global equities falling 18.0% and global fixed income falling 11.2%,1 investors had only a few places to hide. Historically high inflationary pressures, central banks aggressively raising interest rates and increasing concerns about an economic slowdown or recession weighed on markets. A new regime has come to pass.
T. Rowe Price: Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints: March Insights
Global growth is proving resilient in the face of tighter monetary policies; however, impacts of central banks’ tightening are still expected to weigh on the economic growth and earnings outlook in the back half of the year.